Steel prices soared 200RMB in July, steel billets broke through 3,800RMB, and August is still bullish!
In July, despite the high temperature and rainy weather, this month's steel market is really a big "fire". Take Zhengzhou Angang's large thread as an example. The mainstream market price has risen from 4,130 yuan / ton to 4,340 yuan / ton. Up to 200 yuan, many market participants questioned, is the market's traditional off-season still weak?
The steel price volatility this month is mostly affected by strict environmental protection. In some areas, steel mills have different levels of production restrictions. The manufacturers have a strong willingness to price, the cost is high, and the merchants are not willing to cut prices. Look, this month's inventory continued to decrease, supporting the market mentality. Inventory: On July 5th, the national key city 35 city snail 467.06 minus 14.84, wire 126.08 minus 7.98; (unit: 10,000 tons). On July 12, 35 key cities in the country's key cities were 457.25, which was reduced by 9.81, and the wire was 122.80, which was 3.28; (unit: 10,000 tons). On July 19, 35 key cities in the country's key cities were reduced to 1.60, and the wire was 120.97, which was reduced by 1.83; (unit: 10,000 tons). On July 26, the national key city 35 city snail 447.55 was reduced by 8.1, and the wire was 118.17 by 2.81; (unit: 10,000 tons).
Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it will promote urban steel enterprises in key regions such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei to gradually optimize the layout of steel production capacity, strictly control the newly added steel production capacity in key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta and the Plains of the Yangtze River; The steel "long-term mechanism" will never allow the "strip steel" that has been cleared to re-ignite. Tangshan Fengnan District pollution reduction plan released: Fengnan District policy requires the region's heavy pollution industry to stop production from July 20 to August 31. Iron and steel enterprises: The proportion of sintering machines in the city Guofeng Company is 50%, and one 132 m2 sintering machine and one 230 m2 sintering machine are discontinued; the ratio of blast furnace production is 37.1%, and four 450m3 blast furnaces are discontinued. The ratio of production limit of sintering machines of Ruifeng Company, Donghua Company, Kaiheng Company, Jing'an Company and Yuefeng Company of other regional steel enterprises is not less than 50%, and the proportion of blast furnace production is not less than 20%; Acer Furnace Company shaft furnace The production limit is 50%. Coking enterprises: 3 coking enterprises will extend 20% on the basis of strict implementation of non-heating season peak production coking time, and increase 6-hour coke time; coke oven sulfur dioxide emission concentration should not exceed 30mg/m3. Other industries other than iron and steel and coking industries strictly implement measures to stop production and limit production in the non-heating season. On the whole, August is approaching, "blue sky defense war", the environmental protection of "strip steel" is still not lax, the cost end support is getting stronger, the manufacturers are willing to pay more, the merchants are not willing to be low, but The demand for high temperature and low season still restrains the steel price from rising sharply. Considering the overall consideration, it is expected that the overall price of steel will fluctuate mainly in the next month. The risk of falling in the intraday high is still there. It is recommended to make up the demand on the dips and rallies.